Chunk White's "Bet the Ranch" Oscar Picks
OK, let's get past all the Driving Miss Daisy wins / Do The Right Thing isn't nominated, Scorsese and Hitchcock and Kubrick never won stuff. We all know the Oscars are useless, and we all know exactly where we'll be next Sunday night. So as a public service, we abandon the Mondo Complexo for one entry and let 'er rip, as follows:
Best Picture - In a perfect world, maybe Good Night and Good Luck would win, and there's a chance it still might. If Crash (aka Magnolia X) wins, I'm moving to Peru to raise vicunas, and I'll send everyone a nice knitted cap every year. Capote isn't big enough, and as for the regrettable Munich (see my first entry), the less said the better. I know that there's a Brokeback-lash afoot, but I still think it has enough of the elements to win--and then to become the Cimarron of the new millennium, never to be heard of again
Best Actor - Tough one, because although I didn't love Brokeback, I thought Heath Ledger was a marvel of minimalism--how nice to see someone actually living up to his hype. He's the only real competition for Philip Seymour Hoffman, but I think the latter will win for Capote. Hoffman is the Claude Rains of his time, someone who has never given a bad performance in anything from a cameo role to a star turn. He will win for his performace, and all the brilliant work he's done in the last decade. Sorry, Heath--your time will surely come.
Best Actress - The easiest choice this year, if only because there are so few decent parts for real actresses these days. No one saw Judi Dench or Keira Knightley, and Charlize has already won. It's possible that all the desperate housewives and the men who love them will sneak Felicity Huffman in, but I think it's Reese all the way this year. Like Mr. Hoffman, she's also been doing great work in all kinds of films for many years, and deserves the prize. Besides, having Huffman and Hoffman win would be just plain silly.
Best Supporting Actor - I'm tempted to do the old Bill Murray bit and just toss all the nominees off the board because no one really cares. But this is a really interesting race, with some memorable performances. There's no way Matt Dillon's going to win, but everyone else has a shot. William Hurt's performance in History of Violence was completely out of left field, and it was riveting, even if it felt as though he had wandered in from another movie. Clooney will win someday, and he almost gets the nod here for nearly saving the mess that was Syriana. My bet is that his first Oscar will be one for directing, perhaps even this year. So many people think that Paul Giamatti was robbed for Sideways last year that he'll get it this year as a consolation. That would not be a disappointing result, but I think it's going to be Jake by a nose, since I think voters do want to reward the film but won't give it to Heath Ledger.
Best Supporting Actress - No one saw Junebug, Frances has her Oscar for Fargo, and Rachel Weisz is not quite there yet. Michelle Williams (the non-Princess Diaries wife in Brokeback) has an outside shot, but I think it's Catherine Keener's year. It will match nicely with Hoffman's Oscar, and it's about time that this thinking person's heartthrob gets her due. Hell, she should have won for Malkovich...
Best Director - My wife astutely observed the other day that Ang Lee is a master of stillness. Now, he ain't exactly Ozu or Bresson, but she does have a point: beautiful, almost transcendental stillness is a lost art in film these days. My cousin referred to his work in Brokeback as "landscape porn," but that's what the voters love. And although Lee has been uneven, I think he'll get the award here. The only outside shot is Clooney, because as Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner and Robert Redford will tell you, auteurs usually need not apply for this one. Good Night was a small picture, and although I thought it was a much better film, it doesn't have the epic feel. Capote is an actor's film. And if Spielberg or Paul Haggis wins, it's hola vicuna para mi.
Screenplay (Original) - According to the Mrs., it should be Squid and the Whale, but I think that Clooney might get his Oscar here for Good Night.
Screenplay (Adapted) - Capote here, unless it's a Brokeback sweep.
Elsewhere - Loved Corpse Bride, but I think Wallace and Gromit will win Best Animated Film, especially since Miyazaki has won so recently. Hopefully, Paradise Now will get the nod for Foreign Film. It's far from perfect, but it surely stays in the memory. Hopefully, they'll get Ann Reinking or someone to sing "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," the nominated song from Hustle and Flow. All this, and the Sorry-You-Never-Won-And-Now-You're Going-To-Die-Award to Altman. And who'd have ever thought that the South Park- inspired Gay Cowboys Eating Pudding would have done so well...




